77. Incorrect application of Occam's
razor
Occam's razor is the scientific heuristic
that Òentities must not be multiplied beyond necessityÓ. However, this is just
a guideline, and is subjective. In the hands of a clumsy operator, Occam's
razor can simply be used to exclude ideas that are too complicated to
understand, but nonetheless valid failure modes. As mentioned earlier,
catastrophes tend to involve the confluence of improbable scenarios, which
breach a hole in safety mechanisms. So, overlapping and combinatorial failure
sequences ought to be considered. Occam's razor may be suitable when it comes
to deriving naturalistic explanations for complex natural phenomena, but isn't
as useful when it comes to considering complex failure modes or scenarios or
global risk.