7. Bias connected with the fact that
global catastrophe is by definition a unique event
Global
doom sounds fantastic. It has never happened before. If it does happen, it can
only happen once. Therefore normal inductive processes of sampling are
ineffective to predict it. If something is true at t=1, t=2, t=3, and so on, we
can reasonably assume it will be true at t+1 (or all t). This methodology
is useful during smooth conditions, but ineffective for predicting abrupt,
extreme phenomena without precedent. A separate issue is that a lethal effect
that kills off or disables humanity a little bit at a time may never appear to
be a global catastrophe at first, but leads to human extinction when operating
over a sufficient duration of time.