57. The error connected with
concentrating on prevention of small catastrophes instead of prevention of the
greatest possible catastrophe
In Yellowstone Park, wildfires were
prevented effectively for many years. This prevention was so effective that it
allowed a buildup of dry woody material, which culminated in a trio of
catastrophic blazes in the summer of 1988, which required 9,000 firefighters
and $120 million ($240 million as of 2014) to contain37. Yudkowsky
(2008) has a similar example related to flooding:
Burton, Kates,
and White (1978) report that when dams and levees are built, they reduce the
frequency of floods, and thus apparently create a false sense of security,
leading to reduced precautions. While building dams decreases the frequency of
floods, damage per flood is so much greater afterward that the average yearly
damage increases.
Another example is the weakening of the
average immune system today due to insufficient exposure to pathogens. Our
sanitized lives are devoid of pathogens, which could make us highly vulnerable
to genetically engineered viruses of the 21st century. Analogously,
American Indians were highly susceptible to European pathogens, which were
incubated in the filthy gutters and alleyways of overcrowded European cities.
Some Atlantic coast tribes lost 90% of their adult members to disease shortly
after the arrival of the Europeans.38