4. Bias connected to psychologization of the problem
There
is a social stereotype whereby those who warn of risk are considered
"doomsayers," with the implication that these people are social
outcasts or merely warning of risk for attention and to increase social status.
This may always be the case, yet studies show that pessimistic people actually
tend to estimate more accurate probabilities of events than more optimistic
people. This is called depressive realism2. Only precise
calculations can define the real weight of risk. Psychologizing the problem is
just a way of sticking our heads in the sand. This approach to the problem will
be popular among people who clearly understand social stereotypes about
doomsayers but have difficulty grasping the complex scientific details
surrounding global risks. It is easier to call someone a doomsayer than to
understand the risk on a technical or scientific level.