4. Bias connected to psychologization of the problem

          There is a social stereotype whereby those who warn of risk are considered "doomsayers," with the implication that these people are social outcasts or merely warning of risk for attention and to increase social status. This may always be the case, yet studies show that pessimistic people actually tend to estimate more accurate probabilities of events than more optimistic people. This is called depressive realism2. Only precise calculations can define the real weight of risk. Psychologizing the problem is just a way of sticking our heads in the sand. This approach to the problem will be popular among people who clearly understand social stereotypes about doomsayers but have difficulty grasping the complex scientific details surrounding global risks. It is easier to call someone a doomsayer than to understand the risk on a technical or scientific level.