29.Non-computability

Variety of essentially important processes for us is so combined what to predict them it is impossible, as they are incomputable. Un-computability can have the different reasons.

       It can be connected with incomprehensibility of process (for example, Technological Singularity, or, for example, how the theorem Fermat is incomprehensible for a dog), that is connected with basic qualitative limitation of a human brain. (Such is our situation with a prediction of behavior of Superintelligence in the form of AI.)

       It can be connected with quantum processes which do possible only a likelihood prediction, that is indeterministic systems (weather forecast, a brain).

       It can be connected with supercomplexity of systems in which force each new factor completely changes our representation about a definitive outcome. That concern: models of global warming, nuclear winter, global economy, model of exhaustion of resources. Four last fields of knowledge unite that everyone describes the unique event, which never was in history that is advancing model.

        Noncomputability can be connected that the meant volume of calculations though is final, but it is so great, that any conceivable computer cannot execute it during Universe existence (such un-computability it is used in cryptography). This kind of un-computability can be shown in the form of chaotic determined system.

       Noncomputability is connected also by the fact  that though to us the correct theory can be known (along with many other things), we cannot know, which theory is correct. That is the theory, besides correctness, should be easily demonstrable for everyone, and it not one too, in conditions when experimental check is impossible. One way to check theories is to test them by so called prediction markets, where price of oil for example reflects measure of confidence in Peak Oil theory.  However besides theory market price influence many other factors: gamble, emotions or not market nature of the object. (It is senseless to be insured against global catastrophe as there nobody to pay off, and owing to it it is possible to tell, that its insurance price is equal to zero.)

       One more kind noncomputability is connected with possibility of realization of self-coming true or self-denying forecasts which do system essentially non-stable and unpredictable.

       Un-computability, connected with the self-sampling assumption - see about it N. Bostrom’s book. The essence of this assumption consists that in some situation I should consider myself as the casual representative from some set of people. For example, considering myself as usual human, I can conclude, that I with probability in 1/12 had chances to be born in September. Or with probability, let us assume, 1 to 1000 I could be born the dwarf. It sometimes allows to do predictions on the future: namely, if in Russia is 100 billionaires chances, that I will become the billionaire, make one to 1,5 million, in the assumption, that this proportion will remain. To incomputability it results, when I try to apply the assumption of own site to own knowledge. For example, if I know, that only 10 % of futurologists give correct predictions, I should conclude, that with chances of 90 % any my predictions are wrong. The majority of people do not notice it as for the account of superconfidence and the raised estimate consider themselves not as one of representatives of set but as "elite" of this set, the possessing raised ability to predictions. It is especially shown in gambling and game in the market where people do not follow obvious thought: «the majority of people loses in a roulette, hence, I, most likely, will lose».

       The similar form of incomputability is connected with an information neutrality of the market. (What is told further is considerable simplification of the theory of the market and problems of information value of indicators given to it. However more detailed consideration does not remove the named problem but only complicates it, creating one more level incomputability - namely the impossibility for the usual man to seize all completeness of knowledge connected with the theory of predictions, and also uncertainty of what of theories of predictions is true. See about information value of the market so-called «no trade theorem».) The ideal market is in balance in which half of players considers, that the goods will rise in price, and half - what to become cheaper. In other words, to win in a game with the zero sum from the majority of people, a man should be only cleverer or more informed, than they. However the majority of people are not cleverer, than all people, by definition, though are not capable to realize it because of psychological bias. For example, the price for oil is at such level that does not give obvious acknowledgment to the assumption of inevitability of the crisis connected with exhaustion of oil, the assumption of limitlessness of oil stocks. As a result the rational player does not receive any information on to which scenario to prepare. The same situation concerns disputes: If a certain human has chosen to prove the point of view opposite to yours, and you of anything do not know about his intelligence, erudition and information sources (and you agree that you are ordinary man, but not special), and also about the objective rating, that is chances 50 on 50, that he is right, instead of you. As objectively to measure own the intelligence and awareness is extremely difficultly because of desire to overestimate them, it is necessary to consider their being in the middle of spectrum.

       As in a modern society operate mechanisms of transformation of any future parameters in market indexes (for example, trade in quotas under the Kiotsky report on emissions of carbonic gas or the rate on elections, war, futures for weather etc) it brings an additional element of basic unpredictability in all kinds of activity. Owing to such trade we cannot learn for certain, whether there will be a global warming, exhaustion of oil, and how much is real threat of a bird flu.

       One more reason incomputability is privacy. If we try to consider this privacy through different «conspiracy theories» in the spirit of Simmons book «Twilight in desert» about overestimate of stocks of the Saudi oil, we receive dispersing space of interpretations. (That is, unlike a usual case when accuracy raises with number of the measurements, here each new fact only increases split between opposite interpretations.) Any man on the Earth does not possess all completeness of the classified information, as different organizations has different secrets.

       Market-based mechanisms to encourage people to lie about the quality of their products and on projections of their firms in order to get more profits for the time of their work. A clear example of this, we see the consequences of the so-called «revolution of managers», when managers changed owners in the directorate of firms in 1970e years. As a result, they became more interested in the short term profit for the duration of their work in the company without addressing the risks to companies outside this time limit.

The psychological aspect of this problem consists that people argue as if no incomputability exists. In other words, it is possible to find out some opinions and reasoning about the future in which its basic and multilateral unpredictability is not considered at all, no less than limitation of human ability to argue authentically.

C