**23. The error connected with discrepancy of
extrapolation exponential probability function by means of the linear**

Probability function of destruction of a
civilization - if to consider it process smooth in sense of probability, that
is, of course, incorrect - it is possible to assimilate functions of
disintegration of radioactive atom which, as is known, is described by
exponent. For example, if the probability of
destruction of a civilization during the XXI century is equal 50 %
as it is assumed by sir Martin Rees in the book ÇOur final hourÈ in 200 years,
the chance of the survival of the civilization will be 25 %, and through one
thousand years - only 0.1 % - at uniform preservation of the same tendencies.
From here it is visible, that it is incorrect to conclude, that if chances of
the survival within a millennium makes 0.1 % for one century it will be in only
ten times more, that is 1 %. The same error in less obvious kind arises, if we
need to extrapolate the same 50 % of a survival within 100 years on annual
probability of destruction. Linear approximation
would give 0.5 % for a year. However the exact value calculated under formula , makes approximately 0,7 %, that is in 1,4 times
above, than intuitive linear approximation gives.