32. Cognitive biases based on the idea: “It is too improbable to be the truth”
We have many historical examples of how something, that was "improbable", like powered flight or splitting the atom, suddenly became possible, and then ordinary. Moreover, it may become mortally dangerous, or responsible for millions of lost lives. It is necessary to separate “improbable” from physically impossible. If something is physically possible and can be done, people will do it, even if it sounds crazy. It is more useful to humanity to discover an “improbable” global risk than it is to build a new widget that provides a momentary distraction or slightly optimizes some industrial process.