32. Cognitive biases based on the idea:
ÒIt is too improbable to be the truthÓ
We
have many historical examples of how something, that was
"improbable", like powered flight or splitting the atom, suddenly
became possible, and then ordinary. Moreover, it may become mortally dangerous,
or responsible for millions of lost lives. It is necessary to separate
ÒimprobableÓ from physically impossible. If something is physically possible
and can be done, people will do it, even if it sounds crazy. It is more useful
to humanity to discover an ÒimprobableÓ global risk than it is to build a new
widget that provides a momentary distraction or slightly optimizes some
industrial process.