30. Underestimate of precritical events as elements of coming global catastrophe
If
as a result of some events, the probability of global catastrophe substantially
increases (for instance, we find an extremely cheap way of enriching uranium),
that event may contribute a large amount of probability mass to the likelihood
of global disaster, but be underweighted in importance because it is not a
disaster itself. Another example is that of a nuclear war--although a nuclear
might kill ÒonlyÓ one billion people, the ensuing nuclear winter and breakdown
of polite civilization would be much more likely to usher in human extinction
over the long-term than if the war never occurred. We call these Òprecritical eventsÓ. More effort needs to be devoted to
dangerous precritical events, which may kill no one
in and of themselves, but contribute substantial
probability mass to global catastrophe.