55. Sensation of invulnerability
through survival
The natural overconfidence of the young
professional is aggravated from the observation selection effect
which consists of the experience that, for example, at war after a
certain duration without wounds, soldiers start to feel Òinvulnerability,Ó and
will take increasingly risky maneuvers34. The same could occur with
civilization—the longer period of time we go without nuclear war, the
more complacent we will be about it, and the more brinksmanship
we will be willing to undergo because it hasn't happened yet. This is
distinguished from the prior point in that the salient factor is length of time
of survival rather than skill level.