54. ÒOverconfidence of the young
professionalÓ
Talented young men and women who are
professionals in a certain area, especially a dangerous area like racecar
driving or base jumping, eventually get to a level of skill where they may
acquire a false sense of invulnerability and become overconfident. Due to this
very human factor of overconfidence, they run into catastrophes. This model can
be used to consider mankind as a whole in relation to super-technologies such
as nuclear, biological, and nanotechnologies. We may get so drunk on our own
technological mastery that we fail to take basic safeguards and annihilate
ourselves through carelessness.