48. Analysis of global risks and making futurist forecasts are not identical

A futurist forecast often contains concrete data about a time and place (though it would be more accurate if it were a probability distribution over times and places). Yet, it is extremely rare that such specific predictions are on-point. Moreover, futurist forecasts and the analysis of global risks demand different attitudes. In making futurist forecasts, prognosticators often make pie-in-the-sky predictions, throwing their hat into the ring to see if they get lucky or even famous for correct predictions. Analysis of global risk, however, requires more caution and care than this approach.