47. Availability bias

Certain glitzy facts are more accessible to our minds than others. For instance, everybody knows where the first nuclear bomb was used in warfare—Hiroshima, Japan. This attack killed about 120,000 people. But, do you know where the Spanish flu of 1918, which killed a hundred million people, originated? (According to most analyses, it was on March 8th, 1918, in Haskell county, Kansas.) There is a large literature on availability bias, which people looking into global risks would be well-advised to be at least superficially familiar with31.