34. Futurology is split across
as though the underlying processes occur independently
There are several variants or genres of thinking about the future, and they have the propensity not to be interconnected in the intellectual world or in thoughtspace very much, as if these futurist domains were in entirely different worlds.
¥ Forecasts around the theme of accelerating change, NBIC convergence, and the Singularity. Supercomputers, biotechnologies, and nanotechnology.
¥ Forecasts of system crises in economy, geopolitics and warfare. This tends to be a different crowd than the Singularity crowd, though there is some overlap.
¥ Forecasts in the spirit of traditional futurology, such as demographics, resource limitations, global warming, et cetera.
¥ Special type of forecasts for big catastrophes: asteroids, supervolcanoes, coronal mass ejections from the Sun, the Earth's magnetic field flipping, and so on.
To accurately predict the future, we must reconcile data from each of these domains and take a holistic view.