11. Representations that thinking about
global risks is pessimistic
This is related to earlier points about
overconfidence and memetic selection effects.
Considering doom (or being pessimistic at all) is associated with low status,
so people don't want to be associated with it or approve of it. Contrast this
with the experimental result that pessimistic people tend to make more accurate
probability estimates, called Òdepressive realismÓ. The 21st century
is a minefield; if we're going to traverse it, we should do so cautiously.
Dancing on it blindly is not optimism, but stupidity.