25. Exaggeration of prognostic values
of extrapolation
In
futurism, there is an "extrapolation mania" by which futurists take
present trends, extrapolate them outwards, and predict the future based on
those. However, trends often change. As an example, Moore's law, the
improvement in the cost-performance of computers, is already starting to level
off. Our experience with futurism shows that extrapolation of curves tends to
only be suited to short-term forecasts. Extrapolation poorly
accounts for feedback effects between predictions and future events and the
effects of fundamental innovations.
An
example of an extrapolation that failed was Malthus' prediction that human
beings would run out of food at some point during the 19th century. He failed
to account for a number of future innovations, such as artificial fertilizer
and the Green Revolution. Besides being too pessimistic, it is possible to be
too optimistic. Many futurists today anticipate an era of abundance where all
global risks are under control5. However, technological progress may
prove to be slower than they anticipate, and global risks may remain
threatening for a long time, past 2100. We ought to be wary of simple
extrapolation and not take our models of the future too seriously, because
models are made to be broken. Helmuth von Moltke the Elder, a famous Prussian general, said ÒNo
battle plan survives contact with the enemy.Ó