19. Intuition as a source of errors in thinking about global risks

As global risks concern events which never happened, they are fundamentally unintuitive. Intuition can be useful to come up with new hypotheses, but is less useful for more systematic analyses and nailing down probabilities. Intuition is more susceptible to subconscious biases, such as a latent unwillingness to consider unpleasant scenarios, or contrariwise, the urge to see them where they are not present. As intuition takes less mental effort than deliberative thought, there is a constant compulsion to substitute the former for the latter.